Entry #4: Ranking the Top 10 - Accounting for Talent, Opportunity, Injury-Risk, Gut-Feel, and Confidence Level

There are dozens of fantasy football rankings online.  Instead of blindly following a random list, you are going to have to sift through the nonsense and make an educated decision that leads to confidence and peace of mind.  There are five major factors that you should take into account when deciding on your first round pick.  These factors are Talent, Opportunity, Injury-Risk, Gut-Feel, and Confidence Level. 
Talent:  When thinking about the talent level of a player, 4 categories come to mind: Elite, Solid, Average, and Sucks.  Although difficult to define, I would consider a player "Elite" if when you think about them, you think to yourself, "That guy is SICK".  Peterson, Moss, Andre Johnson, Fitzgerald, Brady, and Brees come to mind.  Most other guys in the top 10 will be somewhere in between Elite and Solid.  Guys who are getting close to the Elite level are Chris Johnson and MJD.    
Opportunity:  If you are drafting a RB as your first pick, you must ask yourself the following questions, "How is their O-Line?  Will the team that the RB is on be any good or will they always play from behind? Are they getting all the goal-line carries?  What has changed from last year?"  If 2 of the 4 answers to these questions are negative, you probably want to stay away.  For QBs and WRs, you don't have to think about this as much because anyone you draft in the top 10 will have a ton of opportunities to throw and catch.  However, you won't see Fitzgerald in my Top 10 because I think Kurt Warner might be paralyzed by week 4. (See Gut-Feel Section).  
Injury-Risk:  I hate drafting a player that is likely to get injured in the top 10.  Steven Jackson has over a 50% chance of missing at least 3 games this year.  Also, using the Opportunity criteria above, his team will probably be awful.  Although I heard today that Football Outsiders believes there is a chance for a STL Rams resurgence this year, I am not buying it.  SJax is not in my top 10.  Another injury candidate is LT.  He has a lot of mileage on him and I won't put him in my top 10 because I just don't think he is that good anymore.  One thing going for him is that he will have plenty of opportunity since that offense will put up some major points.  I do not consider Tom Brady an injury-risk.  What happened last year was a fluke.  
Gut-Feel:  This factor is critical in making your decision on a first round pick.  When you hear a player's name, you initially get a gut-feeling on whether that player will succeed.  After thinking about the other 3 factors above, go back and see if that gut-feel changes.  Use gut-feel to break any tiebreakers between potential first-round picks.  Most people only go by gut-feel when making their first pick.  Don't be one of those people.  Do your research first and then see if your gut-feel changes.  I initially hated Deangelo Williams but now I love him b/c I think Stewart is going to blow out his achilles.  
Confidence Level:  This is the most overlooked factor in determining a first-round pick.  Below I posted my predictions for statistics for players in the Top 10.  However, I have a different confidence levels for each of these predictions.  For Adrian Peterson and Drew Brees, my confidence level that they will approach those numbers are at about 90%.  For Brady and Forte, about 80%. For MJD, I’d say about 70%, and for Deangelo Williams about 55%.  Since I am risk-averse, I usually draft players with at least an 80% confidence level.  This factor definitely changes your draft strategy.


Using the above method, I am going to unveil my Top 10.  I hope I am right because now I have accountability with this blog.  I made some predictions last year but they were awful.  Let's forget about those.  
I will give you 1 Point Per Reception (PPR) Rankings and Non-PPR rankings. Of course it is 6 points for all Passing/Receiving/Rushing TDs.  Peterson and Turner lose a ton of value in PPR leagues.  Turner doesn't make my Top 10 in a PPR format.


PPR Rankings
1.  Maurice Jones-Drew: 1800 total yards, 60 catches, 16 TDs.
2.  Matt Forte:  1700 total yards, 60 catches, 14 TDs.
3.  Adrian Peterson:  1900 total yards, 23 catches, 16 TDs.
4.  Tom Brady:  4500 passing yards, 35 TDs.  
5.  Randy Moss: 91 catches, 1365 yards, 15 TDs.
6.  Andre Johnson: 105 catches, 1485 yards, 10 TDs.
7.  Drew Brees:  4400 passing yards, 29 TDs.
8.  Calvin Johnson: 86 catches, 1375 yards, 14 TDs.
9. DeAngelo Williams:  1600 total yards, 30 catches, 14 TDs 
10. Chris Johnson: 1700 total yards, 50 catches, 9 TDs.


Non-PPR rankings:
1.  Adrian Peterson
2.  MJD
3.  Matt Forte
4.  Tom Brady
5.  Drew Brees
6.  Deangelo Williams

7.  Chris Johnson
8.  Randy Moss
9.  Frank Gore (1600 total yards, 10 TDs, 55 catches)  
10.  Michael Turner (1400 total yards, 13 TDs, 9 catches) or Calvin Johnson