Entry #6: The Art of Trading- Using Psychology to Rip Someone Off

I’ve been playing in 3 different leagues for a few years now and I am finding it increasingly difficult to trade with people.  Outside of drafting, trading is the most exciting part of fantasy football so this is a very sad development.  I used to make between 3 and 6 trades per year in some leagues but that never happens anymore.  The reason that nobody will trade with me is that I have consistently managed to rip someone off in the league year after year.  Nobody trusts me and I am pretty sure that most players hate me (not just for trading aspect but also because I think I am smarter than everyone else).      

Before I get to the 5 steps that lead to a rip-off, I have to vent about trades that I have had vetoed.  I HATE that players have the right to veto trades.  It proves to me that most fantasy players do not understand the point of fantasy football trading.  You are a general manager and are looking to trade to upgrade your roster.  As long as it is not collusion, trades should be allowed.  Not every trade has to be perfectly even for it to go through.  Otherwise, what is the point of trading if each team gets equal value??  I even paid $5 to fantasyfootballref.com during the 2007 season when a trade I made got vetoed by the league.  I will post this as a reminder to B. Stealz, who threatened to quit after the trade:

Thanks again for your patience.  The trade you have submitted of Steve Smith, P. Crayton, J. Norwood, K. Winslow, and Roddy White for TJ Houshmanzadeh, Reggie Wayne, Marion Barber and Marty Boooker is a VALID trade for the following reasons:

- The trade would be fair even if you didn't have a laid back trade policy in place.  You are giving up one of the best WR's in the league, a top 3 TE, a number 2 WR, and a RB that should see more touches as the season goes on.  Kellen Winslow's value is being overlooked by people in your league.  Winslow is on pace for over 1000 yrds.  When you receive production like that from the TE position it is extremely valuable.  Antonio Gates was drafted in the 2nd and 3rd round in most leagues and Winslow is producing very similar numbers to Gates.  Winslow and Steve Smith are very similar in value to Reggie Wayne and TJ Houshmandzadeh, while Crayton and Norwood are similar in value to Marion Barber.  Booker and Roddy White don't have much value and cancel each other out in this trade.  This trade is indeed fair and should benefit both teams.

Thank you for choosing fantasyfootballref.com if you have any questions or feedback don't hesitate to contact us at info@fantasyfootballref.com

REDEMPTION!  That is all I have to say about that. (I probably win a championship if this trade goes through.  Please put my name on the trophy for 2007.  Thanks.)

The above trade is an example of a rip-off that lead to everyone hating me.  Here are the 5 steps I used to pull it off.

STEP 1:  Find the victim.  In my experience, there are 2 major characteristics you need to look for in your prey.

1. Doesn’t take himself or fantasy too seriously.  Usually, the victims of fantasy rip-offs are laid-back individuals who play fantasy football for fun.  They don’t really care too much if they win or lose and are not paranoid about getting ripped off. 
2. Doesn’t overvalue the players they drafted:  If you’ve played in the same fantasy league for a couple years, you know who I am talking about.  There are always 3-4 players that overvalue the guys they drafted.  It is impossible to trade with them so don’t even bother.

Once you have located your victim, you can proceed to step 2.

STEP 2: Start with a phone call, text, or IM.  Depending on your level of comfort with the other players in the league, you should always start the trade process with a phone call, text, or IM.  Do not just go online and send a random trade request that you’ve taken 2 seconds to think about through Yahoo.  That is so impersonal.  Trading is analogous to asking a girl out on a date.  Build up to the first offer and don’t apply too much pressure early on.  Here is an example of how to start the process:  Start with an instant message on Gchat or AIM.  Ask about his matchup this week and how he is feeling about his team.  Then, tell him that you like his team (even if you are lying a little bit) and lament about how you don’t have WR depth.  This will get the ball rolling.

Step 3:  Start with generalities, then get specific:  Once your victim knows that you want to trade with him, start by listing some players that you like on his team.  Then, ask him who he likes on your team.  People hate getting trade offers for players that they dislike so make sure you are offering something worthwhile to him.  After you get an idea of who he wants on your team, make the first offer.  The less detail the better.  I usually start with a statement such as “How about TJ Housh, D. Bowe, and an RB for Calvin Johnson and and RB?”  Leave some blanks.  A trade offer like that indicates you are flexible and doesn’t put too much pressure on your trade partner. 

Aside:  This is pretty basic advice but you always want to get the best player in the trade.  90% of the time, the trader who gets the best player in the deal wins the deal.  Try to trade depth for a better player who might blow up.  You can usually find decent pickups on the waiver wire.

Step 4:  Mix and match until he finally says yes.  Keep mixing and matching players over IM/text and try to come to an agreement.  Allow your victim to offer trades to you as much as possible.  That way, you can say stuff like, “ I don’t like this player as much, how about this player?”  Once you come to an agreement, offer it online and seal the deal.  Next, look for the hateful IMs, texts, phone calls you get from the other players in the league for ripping that other person off.  If you don’t seal the deal by step 4, move to step 5.      

Step 5:  Persistence matters.  Trading is NOT easy.  It takes a lot of time.  I think I have pulled off several trades by simply wearing down the victim.   Everyday, I would IM the trade partner and ask about the same trade.  Sometimes they would just laugh it off but I would continue to be persistent.  After 8 days of harassment, they will get tired of you and say, “Screw it.  Let’s just trade.” 

Entry #5: Professional Fantasy Experts are Horrible at Their Jobs: What I Would Do If I Did This for a Living

I am convinced that 80% of people who cover fantasy football professionally are idiots.  2 years ago, I remember reading an analysis regarding an expert-only draft that was completed by industry professionals.  This was a point per catch league.  One guy took Shaun Alexander and Rudi Johnson as his first 2 picks in a 10-team league.  I was so disgusted by these hideous picks that I had to stop reading.  How do you take these 2 guys who never catch passes and who are coming off down years as your first 2 picks in a PPR league?  This so-called professional is obviously horrible at Math.  In a PPR league, you cannot take 2 RBs that do not catch passes in the first 2 rounds.  This leads me to the first thing I would do if I was a professional fantasy football writer. 

Use statistics to justify your fantasy rankings.  This is not a difficult concept.  I am far from a math genius but it is just common sense to develop an Excel File to rank players by plugging in your leagues’ score settings.  I do this each year.  The fantasy rankings lists that are online are so random.  I think people only go by gut-feel when creating these lists and these lists most likely don’t apply to your league’s score settings.  When developing a draft-rankings list, I would give the actual projections for the upcoming year and let you know what the scoring system is.  Also, different lists and analysis for PPR and Non-PPR must be clearly noted.  I feel like most websites give the same analysis for PPR and Non-PPR.  If they do give analysis, it is just one sentence like, “Chester Taylor gets added value in PPR leagues”.  What does that really mean?  More needs to be said about this.  Some websites do a decent job of what I suggest above but most don’t.   I would take it a step further.  I would charge $9.99 to personally create an Excel File for you for your draft.  I would promise to spend at least 1-2 hours tailoring the draft file to your score settings and guarantee that you are in top half of your league or your money back!

Refresh your Draft-Rankings Lists Continually.  For the last few years, I have bought Rotoworld’s Draft Guide.  They claim that they refresh their rankings lists daily.  This is not really true.  They do adjust their predictions slightly but not by much.  They are unwilling to dramatically move a player up or down their draft list based on new information.  It is sort of like college football in that sense.  If you are ranked highly to begin with, it’s more difficult to knock you outside the Top 25.  My thoughts on players change dramatically from August 1^st through September 1^st.  Rankings should change dramatically as well.  I probably do 4 or 5 revisions of my draft file before I draft.  If I did this for a living, I would probably do 8-10 revisions in a given month.  

Add more in-depth analysis for each player.  Most draft guides give 2-3 short paragraphs about a player’s outlook for the upcoming season.  For me, it is not enough information.  I am currently reading the 2009 Football Outsiders Almanac.  It might be the greatest thing I have ever read.  It gives advanced statistical analysis such as Defense-Adjusted Value over Average (DVOA) and Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR) and an extensive team-by-team breakdown that provides a solid framework to help you in your fantasy draft.  This thing is 500 pages long so I only read through the Denver Broncos team analysis but plan to read this by the start of football season.  I will definitely be ordering this every year from here on out.  FOA does a great job of giving an in-depth overview of the entire team but doesn’t necessarily do that for each player. 

In my hypothetical draft guide, I would add the categories that I use for my Top 10 rankings for every single player:  Talent, Opportunity, Injury-Risk, Gut-Feel, and Confidence Level and write as much as I could about each category.  I would also add an analysis of the Upcoming Schedule for that year, the Fantasy Playoff Schedule, and the Game Log of the previous year since final numbers don’t always tell the story.  Some draft guides might do this but I would like it in one area for easy access.     

  

Do more mock-draft analyses.  If you are fantasy football junkie like me, you get excited when you get to read an analysis on a fantasy expert draft or even a mock draft analysis.  These articles are usually longer than regular ones and provide important insight.  I would do many of these and provide analysis on each pick and why I liked or hated each pick. 

Watch game tape.  Rotoworld pissed me off this week.  I was watching the Texans play this past week and I saw that Chris Brown was vulturing short-yardage running duties from Steve Slaton.  However, Slaton did score from 4 yards out on a TD the one time they didn’t take him out.  Anyone watching the game should have recognized that Slaton would be losing goal-line carries to Chris Brown this year.  Rotoworld obviously didn’t watch the game but only looked at the boxscore b/c they reported that it looked like Slaton would be the short-yardage back in their breaking player news.  2 days later, it was announced that Chris Brown would be the goal-line/short-yardage back.  Awful job by them.  Personally, I don’t watch enough football.  If I did this for a living, I would break down game tape and try to look beyond the numbers.  This year, I’ve watched more preseason than ever before.  The reason why I drafted Knowshon Moreno is because he looked nasty in the 3 carries he got before he got hurt.  I like him this year if Denver isn’t down by 30 every game.  When watching LT, he looked kind of slow in the preseason.  I would have a weekly feature article titled, “What I Learned from Watching Game Tape This Week”.  I don’t think most fantasy writers do this.    

 Somebody please hire me. 

Entry #4: Ranking the Top 10 - Accounting for Talent, Opportunity, Injury-Risk, Gut-Feel, and Confidence Level

There are dozens of fantasy football rankings online.  Instead of blindly following a random list, you are going to have to sift through the nonsense and make an educated decision that leads to confidence and peace of mind.  There are five major factors that you should take into account when deciding on your first round pick.  These factors are Talent, Opportunity, Injury-Risk, Gut-Feel, and Confidence Level. 
Talent:  When thinking about the talent level of a player, 4 categories come to mind: Elite, Solid, Average, and Sucks.  Although difficult to define, I would consider a player "Elite" if when you think about them, you think to yourself, "That guy is SICK".  Peterson, Moss, Andre Johnson, Fitzgerald, Brady, and Brees come to mind.  Most other guys in the top 10 will be somewhere in between Elite and Solid.  Guys who are getting close to the Elite level are Chris Johnson and MJD.    
Opportunity:  If you are drafting a RB as your first pick, you must ask yourself the following questions, "How is their O-Line?  Will the team that the RB is on be any good or will they always play from behind? Are they getting all the goal-line carries?  What has changed from last year?"  If 2 of the 4 answers to these questions are negative, you probably want to stay away.  For QBs and WRs, you don't have to think about this as much because anyone you draft in the top 10 will have a ton of opportunities to throw and catch.  However, you won't see Fitzgerald in my Top 10 because I think Kurt Warner might be paralyzed by week 4. (See Gut-Feel Section).  
Injury-Risk:  I hate drafting a player that is likely to get injured in the top 10.  Steven Jackson has over a 50% chance of missing at least 3 games this year.  Also, using the Opportunity criteria above, his team will probably be awful.  Although I heard today that Football Outsiders believes there is a chance for a STL Rams resurgence this year, I am not buying it.  SJax is not in my top 10.  Another injury candidate is LT.  He has a lot of mileage on him and I won't put him in my top 10 because I just don't think he is that good anymore.  One thing going for him is that he will have plenty of opportunity since that offense will put up some major points.  I do not consider Tom Brady an injury-risk.  What happened last year was a fluke.  
Gut-Feel:  This factor is critical in making your decision on a first round pick.  When you hear a player's name, you initially get a gut-feeling on whether that player will succeed.  After thinking about the other 3 factors above, go back and see if that gut-feel changes.  Use gut-feel to break any tiebreakers between potential first-round picks.  Most people only go by gut-feel when making their first pick.  Don't be one of those people.  Do your research first and then see if your gut-feel changes.  I initially hated Deangelo Williams but now I love him b/c I think Stewart is going to blow out his achilles.  
Confidence Level:  This is the most overlooked factor in determining a first-round pick.  Below I posted my predictions for statistics for players in the Top 10.  However, I have a different confidence levels for each of these predictions.  For Adrian Peterson and Drew Brees, my confidence level that they will approach those numbers are at about 90%.  For Brady and Forte, about 80%. For MJD, I’d say about 70%, and for Deangelo Williams about 55%.  Since I am risk-averse, I usually draft players with at least an 80% confidence level.  This factor definitely changes your draft strategy.


Using the above method, I am going to unveil my Top 10.  I hope I am right because now I have accountability with this blog.  I made some predictions last year but they were awful.  Let's forget about those.  
I will give you 1 Point Per Reception (PPR) Rankings and Non-PPR rankings. Of course it is 6 points for all Passing/Receiving/Rushing TDs.  Peterson and Turner lose a ton of value in PPR leagues.  Turner doesn't make my Top 10 in a PPR format.


PPR Rankings
1.  Maurice Jones-Drew: 1800 total yards, 60 catches, 16 TDs.
2.  Matt Forte:  1700 total yards, 60 catches, 14 TDs.
3.  Adrian Peterson:  1900 total yards, 23 catches, 16 TDs.
4.  Tom Brady:  4500 passing yards, 35 TDs.  
5.  Randy Moss: 91 catches, 1365 yards, 15 TDs.
6.  Andre Johnson: 105 catches, 1485 yards, 10 TDs.
7.  Drew Brees:  4400 passing yards, 29 TDs.
8.  Calvin Johnson: 86 catches, 1375 yards, 14 TDs.
9. DeAngelo Williams:  1600 total yards, 30 catches, 14 TDs 
10. Chris Johnson: 1700 total yards, 50 catches, 9 TDs.


Non-PPR rankings:
1.  Adrian Peterson
2.  MJD
3.  Matt Forte
4.  Tom Brady
5.  Drew Brees
6.  Deangelo Williams

7.  Chris Johnson
8.  Randy Moss
9.  Frank Gore (1600 total yards, 10 TDs, 55 catches)  
10.  Michael Turner (1400 total yards, 13 TDs, 9 catches) or Calvin Johnson